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SEC Sports Report Picks the SEC Upset Game of the Week...Roll Tide!
Published Sep 27, 2007
Last week, the experts said that Arkansas would beat Kentucky. Arkansas was favored by 6.5 points at kick-off. They believed Arkansas would win because they were playing at home; they had experienced such a close game with Alabama; and there is just a lot of talent on the Arkansas team. They were wrong.
Last week, we predicted that Kentucky would pull the SEC Upset of the Week. We were right; Kentucky won 42-29. Going into the week, we saw was a Kentucky team with a lot of confidence, enough to come back and persevere with a win in the 4th quarter over a top ranked Louisville team. We also felt Kentucky had a balanced attack, good passing and good rushing and a quarterback that does not turn the ball over.
Arkansas, on the other hand, had given up twenty-one points to Alabama in the first quarter. McFadden had played so much in the Alabama game that when they really needed him in the fourth quarter, he could not play. Too much volatility on top of a close rivalry loss is the perfect formula for an upset.
This week, our SEC Upset of the Week will be following a highly promoted SEC vs ACC match-up. Florida State vs. Alabama. It is being called the River City Showdown. Florida State is favored by 3.5 points. The experts are wrong again.
Most experts believe FSU has more talent on the field than Alabama based on recruiting classes. Many of the experts believe Florida State will almost have a home field advantage which is worth a few points. The FSU crowd will be hostile to Saban. They also tout Bobby Bowdens winning percentage, level of talent and an all-star list of coaches on the roster. Many people believe Jimbo Fischer is the best offensive coordinator in the country. He worked side by side with Nick Saban at LSU and knows his game.
The only way FSU wins is if they get really focused and put everything on the line like they did in the 2nd half of the Clemson game. We believe the biggest factor favoring FSU is that they are really hungry for a big win.
We believe there are five main factors that favor Alabama and will affect the outcome of this game:
Kevin Steele coached FSU players last year. Bamas strongest card is that defensive coordinator Kevin Steele was coaching for FSU last year. Steele has inside knowledge on how to beat this defense because he knows every player inside and out. Fischer knows Saban, but he does not know the Alabama players; and there is a difference.
Alabama Has Been Better Tested. We believe Alabama has been better tested by playing Vandy on the road, and two good teams in Arkansas and Georgia at home. FSU played a terrible first half at Clemson and only scored one touchdown against Colorado.
Emotional Factor. We prefer consistent, focused and steady to emotions- every time. There is a long story about Bobby Bowden growing up in Birmingham, loving Bear Bryant, enrolling to play football for the Crimson Tide. But Bowden had to leave school because he got homesick for Ann and got married. Married fellas could not be on scholarship. Bobby Bowden went to Alabama in 1986 with all intentions of taking the head coaching position of his first love. However, the Athletic Director wanted Bowden to interview for the job. Offended, Bowden returned to Tallahassee. A couple of years later Alabama offered the job with no interview; Bowden declined.
This will be the first time Bowden has played his favorite school of his childhood. It will be emotional for Bowden. There is also some emotion for Saban. Saban will be returning to Florida which was the place of a lot of controversy for him when he left the Miami Dolphins. Emotions tend to make us do some irrational things. We give the edge to Bama.
Confidence. Confidence is everything in sports. Hesitation will get you killed. Alabama has confidence because they have played good schools already this season. FSU is holding on to tradition. We give the confidence edge to Alabama in this one.
Command Structure. FSU has a lot of chiefs on staff. Our experience is that too many chiefs and not enough Indians break down the chain of command and fragment unity. There is probably some confusion on this team because FSU is in transition with new coaches and a leader that is 77 years old. Saban is in full command of the Tide with the coaches, players, media and fans all on the same page.
We believe Alabama will upset Florida State on Saturday and this is our SEC Upset Game of the Week.
Jay Holgate is an analyst with SECSportsReport.com
Read more SEC stories at www.secsportsreport.com
